The St. Louis Cardinals are 50-31 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Washington Nationals who are 48-33 on the road this season. The Cardinals have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cardinals\' starter Adam Wainwright is forecasted to have a better game than Nationals\' starter Gio Gonzalez. Adam Wainwright has a 62% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Gio Gonzalez has a 50% chance of a QS. If Adam Wainwright has a quality start the Cardinals has a 73% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 10.2 and he has a 73% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 61%. In Gio Gonzalez quality starts the Nationals win 57%. He has a 14% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 57% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Allen Craig who averaged 2.13 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 34% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 71% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Washington Nationals is Michael Morse who averaged 1.85 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 28% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Nationals have a 60% chance of winning.
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Washington Nationals
| Washington Nationals | RECORD | St. Louis Cardinals | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record on the Road | 48-33, 59% 1152 | Record at Home | 50-31, 62% 323 | Washington Nationals |
| VS St. Louis Cardinals | 4-3, 57% 57 | VS Washington Nationals | 3-4, 43% -144 | Washington Nationals |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 48-40, 55% 294 | vs Team .500 or Better | 40-40, 50% -361 | Washington Nationals |
| Record as Road Favorite | 28-14, 67% 686 | Record as Home Underdog | 2-1, 67% 209 | Washington Nationals |
| When Gio Gonzalez Starts | 24-8, 75% 1096 | When Adam Wainwright Starts | 16-16, 50% -501 | Washington Nationals |
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: St. Louis Cardinals
| Washington Nationals | RECORD | St. Louis Cardinals | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record on the Road | 6-6, 50% -17 | Record at Home | 8-4, 67% 150 | St. Louis Cardinals |
| VS St. Louis Cardinals | 1-2, 33% -94 | VS Washington Nationals | 2-1, 67% 50 | St. Louis Cardinals |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 9-10, 47% -231 | vs Team .500 or Better | 8-9, 47% -124 | St. Louis Cardinals |
| Record as Road Favorite | 2-1, 67% 42 | Record as Home Underdog | 1-0, 100% 133 | St. Louis Cardinals |
| When Gio Gonzalez Starts | 3-1, 75% 111 | When Adam Wainwright Starts | 3-1, 75% 123 | St. Louis Cardinals |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS: This game is trending Over
| Washington Nationals | RECORD | St. Louis Cardinals | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 38-37, 51% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 41-37, 53% Over | OVER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 8-4, 67% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 7-5, 58% Over | OVER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 35-41, 46% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 42-43, 49% Over | OVER |
| OVER-UNDER IN Gio Gonzalez STARTS | 15-16, 48% Over | OVER-UNDER IN Adam Wainwright STARTS | 17-13, 57% Over | N/A |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Washington Nationals Road Games: 37-44, 46% -1874 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 40-41, 49% -686 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Washington Nationals Road Games: 3-9, 25% -518 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 6-6, 50% -149
MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Washington Nationals Road Games: 50-31, 62% +963 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 45-36, 56% -547 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Washington Nationals Road Games: 6-6, 50% -114 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 7-5, 58% -25
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Washington Nationals Road Games: 33-34, 49% -440 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 42-28, 60% + 1120 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Washington Nationals Road Games: 3-8, 27% -580 St. Louis Cardinals Home Games: 4-7, 36% -370
Click here to see AccuScore's pick for this game
Source: http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/mlb/10-7-2012/washington-st--louis-2437?ref=acc
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